The wide receivers entering free agency are fantastic. There’s a mix of talent, versatility and experience. The influx of young talent at wide receiver seems to have heightened the number of wide receivers taken in the first round. With more teams drafting and developing young wide receivers, it means that veteran wide receivers are hitting the market.
There are also wide receivers with existing contracts that they no longer deserve, which will require restructuring or a pending-realease, as noted by the Schefty Lefty. Texans’ Andre Johnson, Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald, Buccaneers’ Vincent Jackson, Jets’ Percy Harvin and Cheifs’ Dwayne Bowe will have to make changes to their contract or they’re out.
This year’s free agent class could be on the move. Here are the top eight receivers, my estimation of their desired contract, my estimation about whether they stay and why. And if they won’t stay, I’ve listened their potential next stop.
1. Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys
Desired contract: Around $110 million, eight years with $28 million guaranteed — comparable to Megatron or Larry Fitzgerald.
Chance he stays: 99.9 percent
Why? Dez Bryant is Atlas, holding up Tony Romo’s world. Franchise tag or long-term deal — Dallas is keeping Bryant around.
2. Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
Desired contract: $60 million, five years with $10 million guaranteed – comparable to Mike Wallace
Chance he stays: 95 percent
Why? The Broncos have a lot of people to pay this offseason, including the other Thomas (Julius) and the guy that throws both of them passes (Manning). Demaryius is the most important player for them to secure this offseason, and they’ll use the franchise tag if they have to. And it’s not like Wes Welker’s going to be catching passes — his CAT scan has got to be a sorry sight.
3. Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers
Desired contract: $45 million, five years ($9 million a year) — comparable to Victor Cruz
Chances he stays: 65 percent
Why? Cobb out-gained Thomas this year, but Thomas has gotten over 1,000 yards for three-straight years. It’s Cobb’s first time over 1,000. He may want a big sum that pays for his big 2014 year, but the Packers have depth at wide receiver (including 2014 draft pick Davante Adams, who developed nicely). Plus, they just paid Jordy Nelson last season, so the Packers can afford to let Cobb move on. It seems like a wrong place at the wrong time for Cobb and the Packers. But talent trumps all, and Cobb’s got it, so they’ll do their best to keep him around.
Next stop: Kansas City Chiefs – They have the biggest need at wide receiver in the NFL. They’ll go out of their way to get the best one on the market. There isn’t an explosive threat that could open up the Chiefs offense like Cobb could.
4. Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles
Desired contract: $35 million, four years — comparable to Pierre Garcon
Chance he stays: 55 percent
Why? The Eagles get the slight edge over the rest of the NFL, because of Chip Kelly. Maclin’s stats exploded under the new head coach, and he somehow managed to stay healthy (likely due in part to his contract year). Because Maclin got his best production under Kelly, he might stick around. However, Kelly might be eying 2014 draft pick Jordan Mathews and other young wide recievers like Jeff Maehl and Josh Huff (both played for Kelly at Oregon). If he’s happy with that depth, Maclin’s price tag might be too high.
Next stop: 1. Buffalo Bills – Do you think Rex Ryan is going to draft offensive players? And they need a wideout to line up across from Sammy Watkins. 2. Oakland Raiders – They have money to spend and Maclin would be the perfect big-bodied threat that Derek Carr needs to take the next step.
5. Torrey Smith - Baltimore Ravens
Desired contract: $36 million, four years – a poor man’s Jordy Nelson deal
Chance he stays: 30 percent
Why? Smith is going to want more money than the Ravens can spend. Given the Ravens’ cap issues, Smith may have to put on his walking shoes. With the strong 2014 season, Smith can dictate a high price, even though I think he’ll need a strong wide receiver across from him to succeed. He’s a one-trick pony that needs a creative offensive mind and a slot receiver (Anquan Boldin or Steve Smith Sr.) to get him open. And when an above average cornerback lines up across him, there’s no chance he can take over a game.
Next stop: 1. Carolina Panthers – Is it so farfetched that he and Smith Sr. could trade places? The Panthers need help at wide receiver now, and they can’t afford to use a high draft pick on another. Smith may be a bit too rich for his talent, but the Panthers could use someone — anyone — that can catch footballs. And they may be the only people desperate enough to pay for Torrey’s services. 2. Cleveland Browns - It’s not a perfect swap, but Smith jump in for Josh Gordon in the Browns’ offense.
6. Michael Crabtree – San Francisco 49ers
Desired contract: $28 million, four years – comparable to the one that’s about to get Danny Amendola cut from the Patriots
Chance he stays: 35 percent
Why? Despite his undeniable talent, his production has been unimpressive. He and Cecil Shorts are wide receiver replica’s but Crabtree’s got the mythological quality … “upside.” There was a glimmer of hope in 2012, but it all came crashing down when Richard Sherman shattered Crabtree’s world with the best/worst rant of all time. This season, he looked below average — the entire 49ers team did. the Niners appear to be cleaning house, and Crabtree seems like an unlikely candidate to stick around.
Harbaugh’s gone. Frank Gore’s on the way out. And if Crabtree was wise, he’d get out while the gettin’s good — a 49ers’ collapse looks inescapable.
Next stop: 1. Raiders, Titans – Both teams are just dumb enough to pay for his “upside.” 2. Patriots – Crabtree strikes me as all-wrong for the Patriots at first. But then again, he’s got a skill-set that the Patriots covet. And he’s just troubled enough to lower his price tag. The Patriots like bargains, and they like to “fix” a player when the rest of the NFL thinks it can’t be done.
7. Cecil Shorts - Jacksonville Jaguars
Desired contract: $11 million, three years — comparable to Brandon LaFell
Chance he stays: 20 percent
Why? There may not be a ton of interest for the wide receiver that has suffered from Gabbert-itis and a Henne-ndectomy. He’s got a solid 13.3 yards per reception during his four-year career. And in 2012, we saw a glimpse of what he’s capable when he caught 979 yards and seven touchdowns. He can take the top off a defense and could be a legitimate No. 2 receiver in an offense where the No. 1 option is more of a move-the-chains type.
Under-appreciated in Jacksonville, Shorts could move onto another team (like LaFell) and find a niche as a role-player in a successful offense.
Next stop: Pittsburgh Steelers – Antonio Brown is the most talented wide receiver in the league but, unfortunately, not the most physically gifted. When you’ve got monsters like Megatron, a player of Brown’s size will always go under-appreciated. But Shorts is a perfect complement for the way that Brown and Ben Roethlisberger operate. Shorts can distract defenses from Brown, and the moment opponents forget about Shorts, he’ll beat you for a 40-yard gainer (what Markus Wheaton should be). Brown, Shorts and Martavis Bryant could be a dangerous trio.
8. Kenny Britt - St. Louis Rams
Desired contract: $15 million, three years — a poor man’s Roddy White deal
Chance he stays: 30 percent
Why? Despite zero talent at the quarterback position, Britt’s numbers have improved in the last two seasons. He’s an on-field talent, who is slowly becoming a skilled route-runner and pass-catcher. With the right coaching and quarterback, he could suddenly become 2015′s biggest surprise. But naturally, that means he’ll end up taking a big contract from the Raiders, where his career will wither up and die.
Next stop: 1. Raiders/Browns/Panthers/Ravens (in that order) – Britt strikes me as the consolation prize of this year’s market, and he’s a pretty good one. 2. Patriots – He went to Rutgers, so of course the Patriots are interested.