If we knew exactly how every team was going to do this NFL season, we wouldn’t play the games. There are always teams that, for better or worse, surprise us with their performance. There’s a team that is ready to improve a big way on their 2014 record and you heard it here first.
The Oakland Raiders.
Don’t laugh. Yes, they were the laughing stock of the league last season before finally breaking into the left column in Week 12 … a victory they promptly followed up with a 0-52 drubbing at the hands of the a Rams team that lost 10 games. And yes, nearly 30 percent of the league won as many games in 2014 as the Raiders have over the last three seasons combined. But in a league of parity where the line between Top 10 pick and Top 10 team is razor thin, the young core in Oakland has the potential to help this team overachieve as early as this season.
The Raiders offense lies in the hands of a trio of talented youngsters that have as much untapped potential as you’re going to come across in a QB/RB/WR combination. Latavius Murray should pace the ground attack with Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew no longer in town (no, I’m not buying the Trent Richardson signing as a major move), giving this team a dimension that they lacked last season. In fact, the Raiders split the six games in which Murray led the team in rushing yards and went a perfect 3-0 when he ran for at least 60 yards. While Murray should jolt the ground attack, Derek Carr clearly has the confidence from the organization when it comes to leading this team under center. He ranked fourth in pass attempts last season and while his counting statistics weren’t overwhelming, the sheer volume of throws should accelerate the learning curve for 24-year-old. The Raiders were willing to put their season on his right shoulder, a train of thought that is likely to be carried over to 2015. But does he have what it takes? Well, he plays behind an offensive line that was the 12th best pass blocking unit last season despite two inexperienced starters. In addition to expected growth that comes with experience, both for Carr and those responsible for protecting him, the Raiders added a pair of play-makers at the wide receiver position to give the passing game more upside. Amari Cooper comes from Alabama as a NFL ready player while Michael Crabtree leaves a situation in San Francisco that was souring, looking to revamp a once promising career. Mychal Rivera was quietly one of the more stable tight ends in all of football last season (more third down receptions than Rob Gronkowski in 2014), giving Carr plenty of options. The losing history of this franchise is far from inspiring, but the fact of the matter is that the current nucleus has not been much of a player in the past futility and they enter 2015 with more confidence than your run-of-the-mill three win team.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders were a Top 10 team against the run in terms of yards per carry. Khalil Mack (75 tackles, 4.0 sacks, and 3 passes defended in addition to his team-high 13 tackles behind the line of scrimmage) is the real deal and a solid building block for a defense that has 31 players with less than four years of NFL experience. Again, youth doesn’t mean greatness, but it also means a wide range of possibilities, something that is not considered by most when they think of this team. Even slight improvement could mean great growth in terms of win/loss record, as the Raiders dropped five games that were decided by seven points or fewer.
In other words, there are reasons for optimism on both sides of the ball. Confidence goes a long way for a young team, something that was evident once they got a taste of winning last season. There is a chance that the confidence carries over to the beginning of the 2015 campaign, as Oakland opens with consecutive home games and then hits the road for games against the Browns and Bears, not exactly a daunting start to the season. It’s a quarterback driven league and there is the very real chance they hold an advantage at the most important position three times in a five week stretch from Weeks 8-12. I’m not saying this team is winning the AFC West, but could they push eight victories? Look for significant growth as a result of the beating they took last year: not everyone is Andrew Luck and able to learn while winning from Day 1. I mentioned the success they found with Murray at running back last year and with the starting gig his to lose, let’s say that adds one more victory to the 2014 total. Let’s also assume that the new perimeter weapons for a more experienced Derek Carr lead to one more victory. Maybe instead of losing five games by seven or fewer points, they can snatch a victory or two in those games. I feel that those are well within the range of reasonable outcomes and that brings us to seven victories. Give me over the Vegas line of 5.5 victories and I wouldn’t be shocked if Oakland fans end the 2015 season with similar optimism that a team like Buffalo experienced last season as a result of winning nine games after back-to-back-to-back six win seasons. This team has talent and they are going to be better than you think … so change your thinking!
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