In this age of advanced stats, we love hearing numbers that might help us understand how a player might actually have played better or worse than what his standard NFL stats indicate in a given season.
It’s like finding out that worthless penny you have is actually 70 years old!
One of my favorite free Fantasy Football draft tools I like to use every season, both in-season and out of season, is the stats page over at SportingCharts.com. They have some great stat breakdowns for each position, but specifically for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.
5 Stats That Might Change Your Fantasy Rankings on These Wide Receivers
These stats should be taken into account as you begin to do your offseason Fantasy Football research.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: 5.6 Yards After Catch
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The Raiders’ star wide receiver currently works on the outside, but his impressive yards after the catch are similar to what many slot receivers are putting up. It’s important to understand that slot receivers often get good YAC because they catch the ball underneath the second line of defense, often just a couple yards past the scrimmage line, then use their speed, picks and blocking to get upfield quickly. (Keep an eye on Panthers rookie Curtis Samuel this season!)
But Cooper currently plays on the outside, and his success there could actually cause the Raiders to consider moving him in the slot for some plays, too, to take even more advantage of his abilities.
Photo Credit: Jason Miller, Getty Images
Tavon Austin, L.A. Rams: 6.6% of His Targets Were Dropped
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“Dropped Passes” are often blamed on the wide receiver, mostly because the term “dropped” can only be blamed on the man whose hands are attached. But there are instances where a dropped pass can be blamed on a quarterback, such as a QB throwing into tight coverage or inaccurate throws in which the receiver is barely able to get his hands on the ball.
With that said, Austin was still to blame for most of his seven drops, one of which led to an interception. But it’s important to note a couple things: The Rams had a rookie quarterback for much of 2016, and the Rams now have a new offensive mind in 2017. Without question, the Rams have a solid 1-2 offensive punch in Todd Gurley at the line of scrimmage, and Austin beyond it. Expect new Rams Head Coach Sean McVay to utilize Austin better in 2017, possibly more in the slot, where his speed can truly be applied.
Also, note that Austin’s 3.5% drop rate from 2015 ranked as one of the 10 lowest among receivers that season. What was different? The new quarterback, of course. Austin had seven drops last season, but in 2014 and 2015 combined he had just six total.
The Texans superstar receiver played in a higher percentage of his team’s offensive snaps than any other wide receiver in the NFL last year. Yet, he finished the season with the 36th-most Fantasy points among WRs in 2016. That’s insane, folks.
The Texans moved Brock Osweiler in the offseason, and Tom Savage appears to be a placeholder until rookie QB Deshaun Watson can be brought up to speed. There is a lot of optimism for this Texans offense, which means good things for a wide receiver that refuses to come off the field.
Unfortunately, other people are excited about Hopkins this year already, as he went in Round 2 of an Athlon Magazine mock draft I was involved with this summer.
Photo Credit: Scott Halleran, Getty Images
Terrelle Pryor, Washington Redskins: 818 Yards at the Catch
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This stat explains how far downfield a wide receiver usually catches the ball, whereas Yards After the Catch talk about a player’s ability to do things after he possesses the ball. Pryor’s number is intriguing because he did this with a QB-less Browns team, and only six other wide receivers had more Yards at the Catch (and we’re talking about guys like Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton).
Pryor trades in the Browns passing game for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, which seems to portend to much greater things in 2017. Pair Pryor’s Yards at the Catch numbers with Cousins, who led all QBs in 2016 with the most “Air Yards” in the NFL (which calculates total passing yards minus yards after the catch), and Pryor should eat up a ton of deep throws once again this year. We’ll see if the former quarterback can be successful in Year 1 in D.C., but as of now, he’s a fourth-/fifth-round Fantasy pick with big expectations.
Photo Credit: Eric Espada, Getty Images
Michael Thomas, New Orleans: 5.2 Yards After Catch
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You might have already noticed the second-year receiver out of Ohio State has skyrocketed up Fantasy preseason rankings now that Brandin Cooks is in New England. The 6-foot-3 Thomas had one of the better rookie seasons for a wide receiver in the past decade (2014 notwithstanding!). Cooks had 177 targets last season, and now those Drew Brees passes will have to land elsewhere, including in Thomas’ hands.
Consider also that Thomas had the ninth-most catches last year (92) among WRs, with 5.2 yards after the catch. That last number isn’t huge, and it should come down even a bit more, as teams can start paying him the attention they were paying Cooks. So you have to wonder, will Thomas’ perceived value match his probable numbers? How much better can he get in Year 2?
But who loves to throw the ball around across the field more than Brees (and maybe Tom Brady). It would stand to reason that another player, like Willie Snead or Coby Fleener, would pick up the most of Cooks’ targets.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: 5.6 Yards After Catch
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
The Raiders’ star wide receiver currently works on the outside, but his impressive yards after the catch are similar to what many slot receivers are putting up. It’s important to understand that slot receivers often get good YAC because they catch the ball underneath the second line of defense, often just a couple yards past the scrimmage line, then use their speed, picks and blocking to get upfield quickly. (Keep an eye on Panthers rookie Curtis Samuel this season!)
But Cooper currently plays on the outside, and his success there could actually cause the Raiders to consider moving him in the slot for some plays, too, to take even more advantage of his abilities.
Photo Credit: Jason Miller, Getty Images
2/5
Tavon Austin, L.A. Rams: 6.6% of His Targets Were Dropped
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
“Dropped Passes” are often blamed on the wide receiver, mostly because the term “dropped” can only be blamed on the man whose hands are attached. But there are instances where a dropped pass can be blamed on a quarterback, such as a QB throwing into tight coverage or inaccurate throws in which the receiver is barely able to get his hands on the ball.
With that said, Austin was still to blame for most of his seven drops, one of which led to an interception. But it’s important to note a couple things: The Rams had a rookie quarterback for much of 2016, and the Rams now have a new offensive mind in 2017. Without question, the Rams have a solid 1-2 offensive punch in Todd Gurley at the line of scrimmage, and Austin beyond it. Expect new Rams Head Coach Sean McVay to utilize Austin better in 2017, possibly more in the slot, where his speed can truly be applied.
Also, note that Austin’s 3.5% drop rate from 2015 ranked as one of the 10 lowest among receivers that season. What was different? The new quarterback, of course. Austin had seven drops last season, but in 2014 and 2015 combined he had just six total.
The Texans superstar receiver played in a higher percentage of his team’s offensive snaps than any other wide receiver in the NFL last year. Yet, he finished the season with the 36th-most Fantasy points among WRs in 2016. That’s insane, folks.
The Texans moved Brock Osweiler in the offseason, and Tom Savage appears to be a placeholder until rookie QB Deshaun Watson can be brought up to speed. There is a lot of optimism for this Texans offense, which means good things for a wide receiver that refuses to come off the field.
Unfortunately, other people are excited about Hopkins this year already, as he went in Round 2 of an Athlon Magazine mock draft I was involved with this summer.
Photo Credit: Scott Halleran, Getty Images
4/5
Terrelle Pryor, Washington Redskins: 818 Yards at the Catch
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
This stat explains how far downfield a wide receiver usually catches the ball, whereas Yards After the Catch talk about a player’s ability to do things after he possesses the ball. Pryor’s number is intriguing because he did this with a QB-less Browns team, and only six other wide receivers had more Yards at the Catch (and we’re talking about guys like Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton).
Pryor trades in the Browns passing game for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, which seems to portend to much greater things in 2017. Pair Pryor’s Yards at the Catch numbers with Cousins, who led all QBs in 2016 with the most “Air Yards” in the NFL (which calculates total passing yards minus yards after the catch), and Pryor should eat up a ton of deep throws once again this year. We’ll see if the former quarterback can be successful in Year 1 in D.C., but as of now, he’s a fourth-/fifth-round Fantasy pick with big expectations.
Photo Credit: Eric Espada, Getty Images
5/5
Michael Thomas, New Orleans: 5.2 Yards After Catch
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
You might have already noticed the second-year receiver out of Ohio State has skyrocketed up Fantasy preseason rankings now that Brandin Cooks is in New England. The 6-foot-3 Thomas had one of the better rookie seasons for a wide receiver in the past decade (2014 notwithstanding!). Cooks had 177 targets last season, and now those Drew Brees passes will have to land elsewhere, including in Thomas’ hands.
Consider also that Thomas had the ninth-most catches last year (92) among WRs, with 5.2 yards after the catch. That last number isn’t huge, and it should come down even a bit more, as teams can start paying him the attention they were paying Cooks. So you have to wonder, will Thomas’ perceived value match his probable numbers? How much better can he get in Year 2?
But who loves to throw the ball around across the field more than Brees (and maybe Tom Brady). It would stand to reason that another player, like Willie Snead or Coby Fleener, would pick up the most of Cooks’ targets.
