We’re about 10 weeks away from the start of the NFL season, but let’s be real – we’re already deep into our Fantasy Football research! While learning about sleepers and breakouts is fun, and predicting which rookies are going to be great, knowing about who the overvalued Fantasy players are in current Average Draft Position could be the most important thing you’ll ever do … Honest!
Maybe that’s a bit too much.
But still, by seeing which overvalued Fantasy players are being picked too early at this point of the season, you can work their bust-ability in your favor. You’ll be able to either avoid them for a few weeks if they remain at that same ADP spot, or you can watch their ADP drop – and pick them later when they aren’t potential busts!
5 Overvalued Fantasy Players During 2017 Summer
We’re not saying the following players are all going to be Fantasy Football busts in 2017, but we are saying the reward you get from them might not be worth the risk associated with taking them at those spots. ADP is taken from FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
We’re going to do these in order of highest ADP value first, so our only Round 1 bust candidate at this point is Jones, the superstud Falcons wide receiver that has nearly 3,300 receiving yards over the past two seasons. This guy’s good! (No, really!)
Our problems with him at 1.05 is that four-fold:
1. Jones had a broken screw in his foot and had to have more surgery. Will he come back too soon again? Plus, he has turf toe and Dr. Anand Lalaji of InsideInjuries.com thinks he’s a high-injury risk player this season. At 1.05, no thanks. The likelihood of another injury happening is even greater because of what the doctor calls the “compensation factor.”
2. You’re bypassing Odell Beckham Jr. and LeSean McCoy for him.
3. The Falcons put together an offensive season we haven’t seen since the days of the Greatest Show on Turf, and suffered a brutal loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I’m not sure they can rebound mentally to do it all again.
4. Offensive brain Kyle Shanahan is now in San Francisco as the head coach of the 49ers.
Photo Credit: Mike McCarn, AP Images
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders: 2.05 ADP
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Let me reiterate, I’m a fan of drafting Lynch – even as an RB2 – but not in the middle of the second round, when guys like Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell are available.
Lynch is on the wrong side of 30, coming off a year of inactivity (I’m coming off 45 years of inactivity), and he’s in a completely new offense.
Yes, the Raiders offensive line is among the best, but I don’t think it makes Lynch a top-20 player.
Photo Credit: Ben Margot, AP Images
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.08 ADP
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Rookie running backs are like when you were a kid and you got that new pack of baseball cards – who knows what’s in there after your rip open the wrapper! And gum!
Fournette follows a great run of studly rookie running backs in recent years, including Ezekiel Elliott/Jordan Howard from last year and Todd Gurley/David Johnson from the year before.
Unfortunately, their success is the very reason why I believe people are expecting a little too much from Fournette this season. With an ADP of 2.08, Fournette will be the highest non-Zeke rookie drafted since 2010, when Ryan Mathews had everyone wide-eyed with his 2.07 ADP.
Let’s not forget that the Jaguars offensive line is still a work in progress, and the Jaguars burned through last year’s rookie, T.J. Yeldon, pretty quickly.
Photo Credit: Dominic DiSaia, AP Images
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington Redskins: 3.10 ADP
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The new Redskins wide receiver seems to be a perfect fit for Jay Gruden’s offense and Kirk Cousins’ arm. But there are a few things keeping me from jumping on Pryor as a third-round wide receiver.
1. Free-agent wide receivers rarely have good seasons in their first year in a new offense on a new team, especially ones coming in as the expected No. 1 receiver.
2. Pryor is still relatively new to the position, changing from being a quarterback in 2014 with the Raiders. Wideout isn’t the toughest NFL position to learn, but there aren’t many that can go from QB to WR1 on an NFL team.
3. Pryor has some headcase issues that have popped up in the past, and now that he got the shiny new contract, who knows how that will influence him going forward.
Photo Credit: Don Wright, AP Images
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos: 5.01 ADP
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This is now the third season in a row people are hoping for big things out of Anderson, the former undrafted tailback out of Cal. He’s still listed as RB1 on the team’s depth chart, but the Broncos are making sounds like that’s in jeopardy.
The Broncos plan to have a running back committee, and they brought in Jamaal Charles in the offseason. Sure, it’s doubtful Charles will make much noise, but they do have Devontae Booker waiting in the wings, and he has good hands and could be one of those sophomore explosions Fantasy-wise. I’d rather pass on Anderson in Round 5 and grab Booker in Rounds 10-12 (his 14th-round ADP will rise quickly).
We’re going to do these in order of highest ADP value first, so our only Round 1 bust candidate at this point is Jones, the superstud Falcons wide receiver that has nearly 3,300 receiving yards over the past two seasons. This guy’s good! (No, really!)
Our problems with him at 1.05 is that four-fold:
1. Jones had a broken screw in his foot and had to have more surgery. Will he come back too soon again? Plus, he has turf toe and Dr. Anand Lalaji of InsideInjuries.com thinks he’s a high-injury risk player this season. At 1.05, no thanks. The likelihood of another injury happening is even greater because of what the doctor calls the “compensation factor.”
2. You’re bypassing Odell Beckham Jr. and LeSean McCoy for him.
3. The Falcons put together an offensive season we haven’t seen since the days of the Greatest Show on Turf, and suffered a brutal loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I’m not sure they can rebound mentally to do it all again.
4. Offensive brain Kyle Shanahan is now in San Francisco as the head coach of the 49ers.
Photo Credit: Mike McCarn, AP Images
2/5
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders: 2.05 ADP
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
Let me reiterate, I’m a fan of drafting Lynch – even as an RB2 – but not in the middle of the second round, when guys like Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell are available.
Lynch is on the wrong side of 30, coming off a year of inactivity (I’m coming off 45 years of inactivity), and he’s in a completely new offense.
Yes, the Raiders offensive line is among the best, but I don’t think it makes Lynch a top-20 player.
Photo Credit: Ben Margot, AP Images
3/5
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.08 ADP
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
Rookie running backs are like when you were a kid and you got that new pack of baseball cards – who knows what’s in there after your rip open the wrapper! And gum!
Fournette follows a great run of studly rookie running backs in recent years, including Ezekiel Elliott/Jordan Howard from last year and Todd Gurley/David Johnson from the year before.
Unfortunately, their success is the very reason why I believe people are expecting a little too much from Fournette this season. With an ADP of 2.08, Fournette will be the highest non-Zeke rookie drafted since 2010, when Ryan Mathews had everyone wide-eyed with his 2.07 ADP.
Let’s not forget that the Jaguars offensive line is still a work in progress, and the Jaguars burned through last year’s rookie, T.J. Yeldon, pretty quickly.
Photo Credit: Dominic DiSaia, AP Images
4/5
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington Redskins: 3.10 ADP
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
The new Redskins wide receiver seems to be a perfect fit for Jay Gruden’s offense and Kirk Cousins’ arm. But there are a few things keeping me from jumping on Pryor as a third-round wide receiver.
1. Free-agent wide receivers rarely have good seasons in their first year in a new offense on a new team, especially ones coming in as the expected No. 1 receiver.
2. Pryor is still relatively new to the position, changing from being a quarterback in 2014 with the Raiders. Wideout isn’t the toughest NFL position to learn, but there aren’t many that can go from QB to WR1 on an NFL team.
3. Pryor has some headcase issues that have popped up in the past, and now that he got the shiny new contract, who knows how that will influence him going forward.
Photo Credit: Don Wright, AP Images
5/5
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos: 5.01 ADP
Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.
This is now the third season in a row people are hoping for big things out of Anderson, the former undrafted tailback out of Cal. He’s still listed as RB1 on the team’s depth chart, but the Broncos are making sounds like that’s in jeopardy.
The Broncos plan to have a running back committee, and they brought in Jamaal Charles in the offseason. Sure, it’s doubtful Charles will make much noise, but they do have Devontae Booker waiting in the wings, and he has good hands and could be one of those sophomore explosions Fantasy-wise. I’d rather pass on Anderson in Round 5 and grab Booker in Rounds 10-12 (his 14th-round ADP will rise quickly).
